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Abstract
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In the last years, prediction of sport records have received increased attention by the scientific community. In particular, it is of great interest the evaluation of the goodness of a record and the existence of a possible upper bound to human performances. The application of extreme value theory in this context is quite natural. In this work, we apply the generalised extreme value model to best annual results in the period from 2001 to 2019 for different athletic competitions. We propose the use of a calibration procedure applied to the generalised extreme value distribution, in order to obtain a proper predictive distribution for future records. Using the proposed calibrated predictive distribution, we show how to correctly predict the probability of future records and we discuss the existence and interpretation of ultimate records.
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